Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.913431 3.519070 4.198706 5.014818 5.964939 7.032808 8.320332
2025-03-23 2.004876 2.754513 3.689264 4.927849 6.511666 8.453601 10.997204
2025-03-30 1.396734 2.153451 3.188655 4.680756 6.743541 9.457521 13.253450
2025-04-06 1.066873 1.820573 2.937820 4.666883 7.216342 10.767504 16.000087
2025-04-13 0.830038 1.556097 2.714187 4.624083 7.603713 11.962939 18.676470
2025-04-20 0.715402 1.454228 2.708289 4.888944 8.451999 13.875532 22.527751
2025-04-27 0.609625 1.339603 2.654092 5.055880 9.151086 15.613536 26.255485
2025-05-04 0.536783 1.267113 2.654777 5.305166 9.997507 17.639091 30.572838
2025-05-11 0.444104 1.131647 2.514142 5.279176 10.367240 18.922479 33.808245
2025-05-18 0.352118 0.973037 2.297819 5.076335 10.394126 19.628088 36.143869
2025-05-25 0.275026 0.826224 2.075283 4.822543 10.288609 20.083262 38.076018
2025-06-01 0.230496 0.745809 1.976894 4.798207 10.600754 21.278494 41.337840
2025-06-08 0.194615 0.679089 1.899544 4.812725 11.001958 22.689162 45.124352
2025-06-15 0.162966 0.614423 1.814412 4.797606 11.342153 24.016707 48.863801
2025-06-22 0.127523 0.525816 1.651285 4.580043 11.238221 24.496757 51.092506
2025-06-29 0.107390 0.478678 1.584353 4.575001 11.579557 25.853484 55.032798
2025-07-06 0.089470 0.432187 1.508751 4.535991 11.839580 27.065728 58.774539
2025-07-13 0.083411 0.427381 1.550473 4.797645 12.798494 29.748353 65.509460
2025-07-20 0.075166 0.410990 1.554691 4.962310 13.550068 32.057442 71.647891
2025-07-27 0.069756 0.404392 1.587632 5.207767 14.513173 34.868436 78.936876
2025-08-03 0.059029 0.369919 1.524804 5.182249 14.826586 36.331098 83.606467
2025-08-10 0.046874 0.322390 1.407052 4.982666 14.692357 36.821682 86.325634
2025-08-17 0.036263 0.275971 1.280051 4.732957 14.401276 36.941276 88.276292